It may take as long as seven years to bring the global pandemic to an end, according to newly published calculations. That figure is based on current vaccination rates, with wealthier countries reaching a target goal of 75-percent quicker than poorer countries. Compounding the issue is the two-dose requirement for the vaccine.
The new calculation comes from Bloomberg, which compiled a database on COVID-19 vaccinations globally. As of publication, more than 119 million vaccine doses had been administered around the world, with countries aiming to reach a certain minimum threshold for herd immunity — the exact figure is still up for debate, but vaccinating around 75-percent of the population may be necessary to bring the pandemic to an end.
At this point in time, certain countries are rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine and may reach their population vaccination targets later this year or by early 2022. Many other countries, however, haven’t yet started vaccinating their populations and — globally speaking — it may take several years for the worldwide pandemic to end.
Many factors may impact the figures, with Bloomberg noting that as vaccination rates increase, the amount of time it will take to reach a 75-percent vaccination threshold will drop. ‘The calculations will be volatile, especially in the early days of the rollout,’ the report notes, ‘and numbers can be distorted by temporary disruptions.’
Such disruptions have already occurred — delayed shipments in Canada, for example, have cut the nation’s vaccination rate, putting its 75-percent threshold timeline at 10 years…a figure that will no doubt decrease as the vaccination rate increases. The figures account for two doses per person; assuming the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine is authorized, Bloomberg notes that it will adjust its figures to account for the change.